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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/12 11:52
Bids Surface at $305 in Nebraska
Some more cash cattle trade could develop later Thursday afternoon as
packers still seem to be short bought.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as traders
are waiting to see what else develops in this week's cash cattle market. The
lean hog contracts have thankfully turned direction and are again trading
higher. Bids of $305 have surfaced in Nebraska, but feedlot managers have
chosen to pass the offer at this point. March corn is down 5 cents per bushel
and January soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is
down 70.09 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,000 metric tons
(mt) for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 32% from the
prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt),
Japan (3,400 mt) and Mexico (1,400 mt). Pork net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024
were down 36% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The
three largest buyers were Mexico (9,100 mt), Japan (4,500 mt) and China (2,700
mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
As traders continue to wait to see what the rest of the week is going to do
with the cash cattle market -- slightly weaker tones have settled in the
futures complex. Already this week, Southern live cattle have traded anywhere
from $191 to $192, which is steady to $2.00 higher, and Northern dressed cattle
have traded at mostly $300, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted
average. But as of Thursday morning, whopping bids of $305 dressed have
surfaced in Nebraska, and feedlots are letting them sit idle. You read that
correctly, feedlots are passing on the bids of $305 in Nebraska! We understood
packers were short going into this week's market, but for feedlot managers to
be bold enough to pass on $305 indicates they are aware of just how
short-bought packers are and they don't intend to squander the opportunity
presented to them this week. December live cattle are down $0.05 at $192.20,
February live cattle are down $0.37 at $191.00, and April live cattle are down
$0.45 at $192.17.
Boxed beef prices are unavailable as the USDA is currently experiencing
technical difficulties.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is following in the footsteps of the live cattle
complex as it too is trading slightly lower. The spot January contract is
currently trading at resistance levels and Thursday's pressure will likely mean
the complex won't surpass that threshold. Nevertheless, Thursday's weakness
throughout the futures complex won't likely have any effect in the countryside
as, fundamentally, the power remains evident. January feeders are down $0.35 at
$258.70, March feeders are down $0.50 at $258.87, and April feeders are down
$0.75 at $259.42.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex may have found some technical support as the contracts
are again higher after falling substantially lower earlier this week. Weak
consumer demand has plagued the market as of late and without traders seeing
the fundamental support they'd ideally like to see they opted to let the
contracts drift lower earlier this week. But Thursday seems to present some new
opportunities as the nearby contracts are trading higher. February lean hogs
are up $0.02 at $84.37, April lean hogs are up $0.17 at $88.42, and June lean
hogs are up $0.15 at $99.67.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/11/2024 is up $0.30 at $83.91, and
the actual index for 12/10/2024 is up $0.29 at $83.61. Hog prices are lower on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.35 with a weighted average price
of $79.08, ranging from $72.00 to $83.50 on 1,903 head. Pork cutout values are
unavailable as the USDA is currently experiencing technical difficulties.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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